Since 2001, I have been tracking the historic clock times for the Auckland property cycle.
I record that progression on the property cycle clock. The time on the clock is based on methodologies developed in the 1990’s and very early 2000’s.
In 2001, the recovery commenced and I publicly called the booms arrival early in 2002 just before it commenced.
The cycle then moved into the boom and lingered there for several years.
In 2004 many property commentators thought the boom was over. My methodologies said it wasn’t. I informed my clients it would be an error to believe the crash calls being made by some at that time.
The boom lasted another 3 years and values rose by another 30%+.
In 2008, my research indicated the looming property slump just as it arrived.
At that time, many of my, then companies’, clients wanted to know how long the slump might last. So I made some rough projections based on back testing and forward projections. The result was a view for the next 6 years.
Based on my methodologies for assessing the cycles progression it looked in 2008 like the next recovery would probably commence in 2013.
The diagram above is that actual forecast produced in 2008. (The property cycle clock is the original trademarked clock design, which has since been updated).
I was wrong, it arrived in 2012, but considering it was a projection several years into the future, it turned out to be fairly accurate in the scheme of things.
In the diagram below I have added the actual cycle’s progression (to that original forecast diagram) to show how the cycle progressed, up to 2013, around the outside of the clock.
Now you know how predictable the property cycle is!
This predictability enables us to peer beyond the property market event horizon.
To find out more see our blog articles Why the property cycle is predictable
